Prof. Heiner Heimes’ Commentary (September): The battery race will be decided on the factory floor
Prof. Heiner Heimes Comments on the Battery September: The Battery Race Will Be Decided in the Factory Solid-state cells are entering production, CATL is starting its European ramp-up, and China is already responding to overcapacity. September’s most important battery news shows that competitiveness is not determined by announced gigawatt-hours but by the ability to produce new cell technologies reliably and economically. Building a factory is one thing. Ramping it up with high quality, low scrap rates, and stable processes is something else entirely. Three developments from September illustrate particularly well what will matter in the years ahead. Solid-State Batteries: What Counts Is Not the Lab Record but Production ProLogium Starts Series Production of Solid-State Battery With 381 Wh/kg According to the company, ProLogium began series production of its Generation 3.5 solid-state battery in Taiwan in early September. The large-format cell reportedly achieves 381 Wh/kg and 903 Wh/L. What I find particularly interesting, however, is a different point: ProLogium is trying to design its next cell generation so that large parts of the existing production infrastructure can continue to be used. According to the company, only around ten percent of the equipment would need to be modified. This shows when a promising cell technology turns into an industrially relevant innovation. For years, we have seen very good results from research and development on solid-state batteries. High energy densities or new material combinations alone are not enough, however. What matters is whether a technology can be manufactured reproducibly, with sufficient throughput, and at competitive cost. Production technology must therefore not be considered only at the end of development. It has to be part of the cell concept from the very beginning. If a new cell generation can be manufactured using existing or only moderately adapted production processes, this reduces investment risks and can significantly accelerate the ramp-up. This is where a major opportunity lies for the European machinery and plant engineering industry. New cell technologies do not necessarily mean that all existing production knowledge becomes obsolete. Much of the experience from today’s lithium-ion manufacturing, for example in coating, handling, automation, quality assurance, and process integration, remains valuable. The real question about solid-state batteries is therefore no longer just: Does the cell work? Increasingly, it is: Can we produce it reliably and economically in the millions? CATL in Debrecen: Now the Hard Part Begins CATL Starts Trial Production of Battery Cells in Debrecen CATL has started trial production of battery cells at its plant in Debrecen, Hungary. Initially, two lines are entering trial operation. In the long term, the site is designed for an annual capacity of 100 GWh, which would make it CATL’s largest production site outside China. 100 GWh is an impressive figure. Still, for me, the truly decisive part of the project is only just beginning with the start of trial production. A cell factory is not successful simply because the buildings are completed and the equipment is installed. Only during the ramp-up does it become clear whether production processes are actually robust. Machines have to be interlinked, process windows stabilized, and quality parameters secured. At the same time, scrap and downtime must be reduced step by step. In battery cell manufacturing in particular, this ramp-up is especially demanding. Small deviations in early process steps may only become apparent in the cell much later. Those who do not master the interrelationships between materials, process parameters, equipment condition, and subsequent cell performance pay for it with scrap and low productivity. The industrial experience advantage of established cell manufacturers is therefore a decisive competitive factor. At the same time, Debrecen illustrates the European dilemma very clearly. On the one hand, real cell production capacity is being built in Europe on a considerable scale. That is fundamentally positive for the European battery value chain. On the other hand, a substantial share of the technological and production know-how comes from a Chinese market leader. For me, industrial sovereignty therefore means more than production capacity within European borders. We also have to master the competencies behind this production: materials, production technologies, plant engineering, digitalization, quality assurance, and process development. If Europe wants to remain relevant in the battery market in the long term, it must continue to build up precisely these capabilities. China’s Overcapacity Increases the Pressure on Europe China Responds to Overcapacity in Battery Energy Storage While we in Europe are discussing how to build and ramp up new cell production facilities, China is, in part, already dealing with the opposite problem. In September, it became known that new production projects in the battery storage sector are to be scrutinized more closely or temporarily slowed down. The background is growing overcapacity and considerable price pressure. Overcapacity does not simply mean that too many factories have been built in China. It also means that companies with enormous production experience and, in some cases, already depreciated equipment are entering an even tougher price competition. For new European cell manufacturers, this is an enormous challenge. They have to ramp up a new production, reduce scrap, stabilize their supply chains, and compete with companies that have already been through exactly this learning process, all at the same time. It would therefore be a mistake to conclude from Chinese overcapacity that Europe should now invest less in its own battery competence. The opposite is true. We cannot fight this competition on production volume alone. Europe has to play to its strengths where we can differentiate technologically and industrially: through innovative production processes, high-performance equipment, automation, digitalization, quality assurance, and close cooperation between cell manufacturers, machinery makers, material producers, and research. The European machinery and plant engineering industry plays a central role in this. If cell production is predominantly built up with non-European production technology in the long term, we will not only lose value creation in plant engineering. We will also lose an important part of the knowledge of how battery cells are industrially manufactured and further developed. Conclusion: Europe Needs Industrial Competence For solid-state batteries, the question
